The Bull Case for Hbar

by | May 18, 2019 | Hashgraph 101

Introduction: There are few financial investment vehicles that can brag about the amazing return on investment (ROI) that the cryptocurrency space has since its inception with Bitcoin. The ROI of Bitcoin if one invested $100 in 2010 would now be worth nearly $14 million USD, based on its current value. That is an astonishing amount of returns unlike anything before in finance or finance technology for the common investor. One can even calculate how much could have been earned in time with Bitcoin at this reference link.

Link: https://www.cryptoground.com/bitcoin-profit-calculator?amount=100&day=07-17-2010

Investing in cryptocurrency is not for the faint of heart. The wild highs are often followed by prolonged winters of frigid activity in price action, and many have undergone nearly 90% drops in a short period of time after reaching all-time highs. It is strongly recommended by experts in finance and cryptocurrency that any investment in digital assets be made cautiously, with reference to an advisor and made only with dispensable funds.

Hbar on Exchange: The critical next step for the Hedera Hashgraph public distributed ledger technology (DLT) after main net completion and Open Access, is the release of all early investors Hashgraph tokens so that they can be traded on hbar exchanges. The last investment round for Hedera was the SAFT fundraise which raised over $20 million USD at a top price of $0.12. What the price of hbar on exchanges will be is about to be determined this summer 2019.

Since the time of the last fundraise, many positive developments have occurred with the Hashgraph network such as Governing Council member announcements, new alliances and partnerships with prominent blockchain experts (Bo Chen, Ari Paul, etc), as well as successful Community Testing Phase 1. At the time of this article, Phase 2 testing is underway and allowing users to truthfully see the evidence of the claims in the Hashgraph whitepaper.

Which hbar exchanges are finally announced will be dependent on the crypto exchanges that care to trade hbars and will likely occur in summer 2019 before Open Access. Kraken, Gemini and Coinbase are certainly possibilities for Hashgraph, but will remain to be seen.

Hbar Price: Since the last value of an hbar was $0.12 USD in the most recent fundraising does not mean that it will start at that value when listed on exchanges. In order to appreciate value of a token, one must look at the circulating supply, the most recent value, as well as consider all of the positive and negative catalysts that have occurred in the most recent past.

We know that the Hashgraph performance specifications are leaps and bounds beyond all other cryptocurrencies in speed (100k TPS), scalability (3 Phase Scaling to 100k+ nodes) and bank-grade security (aBFT). However, superior technology is not always perfectly adopted unless it is well-suited for the market. Hashgraph has specifically targeted the enterprise market for adoption and in the process has formed a new type of Governance that may finally earn the positive reputation and prestige of global megacap commercial investors.

Hbar Marketcap: Considering all of these features of Hedera Hashgraph and then realizing that only 5.6% of total supply will be made available on Open Access, should help generate a realistic starting hbar marketcap value. I.e./ hbar price $0.12 x 2.33 Billion hbars = $279.6 Million USD hbar marketcap. This already establishes the hbar in the top 31 of all coins per coinmarketcap, which has Dogecoin in the 30th spot at ~$350 million USD marketcap at the time of this writing.

Hashgraph Technology: Considering that Hashgraph is not only a cryptocurrency, but a smart contract platform and a secured file storage network should allow it to match current top 20 crypto platforms in value with similar features. Some of the top platform digital currencies offer a coin and a smart contract platform, but not a file storage system. File storage is a challenging feature since it incurs a hefty cost in maintenance and transfer, which is very limited in most blockchains. Network congestion and low throughput of blockchain design severely limits file storage functionality.
Hashgraph technology allows the lowest fees for maintenance (<$0.01 USD) and can handle incredible file throughput in the network without congestion. The Cryptokitties were a good example of this network congestion phenomenon and nearly crashed the Ethereum network with file transfers and activity. This problem has been solved by the Hashgraph algorithm and consensus mechanism.
Considering the superior facts about Hashgraph technology in contrast to competitive platforms could certainly translate to a higher valuation on hbar exchanges. It is important to evaluate the base technology of each top 30 platforms in contrast to Hashgraph to have a realistic prediction of which network will eventually take the largest market share and have the highest valuation. However, the speed, scale, security, governance and fairness features of Hedera make it a major contender in the cryptocurrency space.
Hedera Team Management: Any investment analysis requires a deep dive into the management team behind an organization, to vet out the quality and experience of the people involved with the project. In most cryptocurrency projects, a de facto, or default management is created between the founders of the platform, investors, influencers and miners. However, because the majority of crypto networks do not wish to establish any form of strong governance, there is no firm confidence in the management of the network.
Leaderless networks have difficulty arriving at update decisions, ensuring nodes have updated the changes and can find themselves devolving into arguments that lead to forks. Hashgraph is immune to the destructive power of the fork, and has many internal strong governance measures to ensure node compliance with updates, distributed power of trusted organizations in the 39 Council members and using an electionary term-limited structure like the US Congress.
The Inventor and Founder of Hashgraph, Dr. Leemon Baird is really unprecedented in the crypto ecosystem. He has an extensive background in successful startups as well as academic computer science research in artificial intelligence, machine learning and network design. Mance Harmon, CEO and Co-Founder also has an extensive track-record of successful ventures in addition to his most interesting achievement as the Director of the WarGames program in US Government Intelligence.
There is no doubt that the quality, experience and proven success of the Hashgraph team is outstanding. This is also in addition to the Governing Council members that are equally outstanding and successful enterprises.

Link: https://www.hedera.com/about#team

 https://www.hedera.com/council

Hbar Bull Case: Before a prediction can be made about future hbar price on exchanges, one must consider the caveat to the claim. Markets are not perfectly efficient at determining what the best technology in a sector is at first, and at times has adopted the second-best in tech because of other market forces (first-mover advantage, popular adoption, etc).

In cryptocurrency, it takes a multivariable analysis of a network to arrive at its true intrinsic value apart from its popularity or marketcap value. For example, many crypto networks exist today, even in the top 30 of all coins, and still do not even have a functional main net. Hashgraph has had a functional main net since August 2018, has demonstrated its functionality in community Phase 1 and 2 testing and has a transparent, defined and objectively experience management team.

 Consider that Hashgraph has solved the trilemma of blockchain, not compromising any single variable in scale, security or decentralization in order to achieve the best-in-class speed, bank-grade security and global scalability. Also consider that the first-in-class strong governance with distributed power in 39 Governors will promote trust from the world’s largest megacap corporations, drawing adoption. Lastly, understand that the Hashgraph network offers the full spectrum of cryptographic services over and above all other digital asset networks with incredibly low fees.

 Hbar price could see a significant rise from its last Saft pricing when on exchanges based on these amazing properties. The possibility of Hedera Hashgraph superseding many other crypto platforms has been estimated by experts as well. A prestigious futurist that predicted that Google and mobile phones would be the dominant tech in industry in the 1990’s, has also recently predicted that Hedera Hashgraph will also become one of the top digital assets networks in the world in the near future.

 Link: Bull Case for Hbar https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yxg4Rr9QNQs&t=4s

 In light of this discussion, the following is a list of conceivable hbar prices on exchange at OA. Considering what other cryptocurrencies offer in services, in addition to their technical performance compared to Hashgraph should help an investor make a more accurate prediction in hbar price.

  1. Hbar price $0.12 with hbar marketcap at $279.6 Million USD (~#31 Qtum on CMC)
  2. Hbar price $0.24 with hbar marketcap at $559.2 Million USD (~#22 Ontology on CMC)
  3. Hbar price $0.36 with hbar marketcap at $838.8 Million USD (~#17 Cosmos on CMC)
  4. Hbar price $0.48 with hbar marketcap at $1,118.4 Million USD (~#15 IOTA on CMC)
  5. Hbar price $0.60 with hbar marketcap at $1,398 Million USD (~#12 Monero on CMC)

The efficient market hypothesis states that eventually market participants determine a price that is fitting and proper for the underlying asset. It may take some time for the market to determine the true value of the Hedera public DLT, but with the best-in-class Hashgraph technology, high quality team with strong governance and multi-purpose platform features, it seems clear that it will become a top contender in the crypto market.

Ħello Future.